Enflasyon Phillips Eğrisi

ABD'de artmayan enflasyon herkese dert oldu. Bu yazıyı ileride okurken ne düşünürüm bilmem.

Ama tarihe not düşelim

Önce Roubini gelsin:

One possible explanation for the mysterious combination of stronger growth and low inflation is that, in addition to stronger aggregate demand, developed economies have been experiencing positive supply shocks.

1. Globalization keeps cheap goods and services flowing from China and other emerging markets. 
2. Weaker unions and workers’ reduced bargaining power have flattened out the Phillips curve, with low structural unemployment producing little wage inflation. 
3. Oil and commodity prices are low or declining. 
4. And technological innovations, starting with a new Internet revolution, are reducing the costs of goods and services.

Turner devam etsin:

Japan is the most extreme case: with a shrinking labor force, minimal immigration, and a 2.8% unemployment rate, all standard models predict accelerating wage growth. :)

Three factors may explain this trend. 

1. For 30 years, labor markets have become more flexible, with trade union power dramatically weakened. 
2. At the same time, globalization has exposed workers in the tradable sector to global wage competition. 
3. But, most important, information technology delivers ever-expanding opportunities to automate all economic activities. In a fully flexible market labor with, as it were, a reserve army of robots, the potential for pervasive automation can depress real wage growth even with full employment.

Not:  Turner  güzel bağlamış.

Facing this debt overhang, loose monetary policy alone was bound to be ineffective and, beyond some point, potentially harmful and counterproductive. Neither investment nor consumption responds strongly to ever-lower interest rates when debt burdens are high. Very low interest rates, meanwhile, generate asset-price increases, which benefit the already wealthy and reduce the income of less wealthy bank depositors

loose monetary policy cannot work through normal transmission channels, and is effective if, and only if, it facilitates fiscal expansion by keeping government borrowing costs low