Yellen'in 26 Eylül 2017 Tarihli Konuşması

Yellen bu konuşmasında daha çok enflasyon konusuna değindi.

2019 yılı sonu itibariyle enflasyon (PCE) %2 olacak.

İşsizlikte uzun vadeli tahmini %4.6 iken şu an mevcut %4.4 seviyesinde.

Most of this uncertainty reflects the influence of unexpected movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar, as well as that of idiosyncratic developments unrelated to broader economic conditions. These factors could easily push overall inflation noticeably above or below 2 percent for a time. 

Such was the case when rising oil prices pushed headline inflation noticeably above 2 percent for several years prior to the financial crisis. 

Similarly, the Committee substantially discounted the reductions in inflation that occurred from 2014 through 2016 as a result of the decline in oil prices and the effects of the dollar’s appreciation on import prices


But such disturbances are not a great concern from a policy perspective because their effects fade away as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.

Ana Sebepler:

Resource Utilization

long-run sustainable unemployment rate can drift over time because of demographic changes and other factors.

Matthes (2017), standard errors for estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment are typically at least 1/2 percentage point. Accordingly, if the sustainable rate is estimated to be about 4-1/2 percent, there is roughly a 15 percent probability that the actual value is less than 4 percent; symmetrically, there is a 15 percent probability that it is greater than 5 percent.

Unemployment rate probably is correct in signaling that overall labor market conditions have returned to pre-crisis levels. But that return does not necessarily demonstrate that the economy is now at maximum employment 

because, due to demographic and other structural changes, the unemployment rate that is sustainable today may be lower than the rate that was sustainable in the past.



Inflation Expectations

5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate



Misspecified Inflation Dynamics

Increased competition from the integration of China and other emerging market countries into the world economy may have materially restrained price margins and labor compensation in the United States and other advanced economies. In fact, one study concludes that most of the decline in the labor share of national income in the United States since the late 1980s can be attributed to offshoring of labor-intensive production. If this restraint on the labor share continues to build over the next few years (and not merely holds steady), then it could indirectly hold down the growth of domestic wages and prices in ways not captured by conventional models.

The growing importance of online shopping, by increasing the competitiveness of the U.S. retail sector, may have reduced price margins and restrained the ability of firms to raise prices in response to rising demand.



Policy Implications

FOMC participants--like private forecasters--have reduced their estimates of the sustainable unemployment rate appreciably over the past few years in response to the continual flow of information about the always changing economy.